Ibyago Isi Yari Guhura Nabyo Iyo Trump Afata Icyemezo Cyo Kwihorera kuri Iran yandagaje igisirikare cya Amerika

Mu rukerera rwo ku wa 12 Mutarama 2016, igikorwa cyasaga n’igisanzwe mu gisirikare cya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika cyahindutse ikibazo gikomeye cya politiki n’umutekano ku rwego mpuzamahanga. Abasirikare 10 ba US Navy, bari mu bwato bubiri bwihuta bwa gisirikare (Riverine Command Boats), bafatiwe mu mazi ya Iran nyuma yo kuyinjiramo batabiherewe uburenganzira. Nubwo icyo gikorwa cyari kigamije ibintu bisanzwe bya gisirikare, ingaruka zacyo zageze kure, zitera impaka zikomeye ku mbaraga za Amerika, icyubahiro cyayo, ndetse n’ingaruka zashoboraga kuvuka iyo ubuyobozi bwayo bwitwara mu buryo bwo kwihorera.

Operation yari igamije iki?

Iyo operation yari igikorwa gisanzwe cyo kwimura abasirikare n’ibikoresho, no kugerageza imikorere y’amato mashya mu ngendo zo mu Nyanja ya Persian Gulf. Abo basirikare bari bavuye muri Kuwait berekeza muri Bahrain, aho hari icyicaro gikuru cy’Ingabo za Amerika mu nyanja (US Fifth Fleet). Nta gahunda, nta tegeko, nta n’intego bari bafite yo kwinjira mu mazi ya Iran cyangwa kuyageraho mu buryo ubwo ari bwo bwose.

Icyahinduye ibintu ni ikibazo cya tekiniki: imwe muri moteri z’ubwato yarapfuye, bituma batakaza icyerekezo, ubwato buhagarara hafi y’ikirwa cya Farsi ahantu hagenzurwa cyane n’Ingabo z’Inyanja za Iran (IRGC Navy). Iran yahise ibifata nk’ibihungabanya ubusugire bwayo, itangiza igikorwa cyo kubafata. Nta mirwano yabaye, ariko abasirikare ba Amerika bambuwe intwaro, bashyirwa ku ntebe, amaboko inyuma y’imitwe, amashusho arafatwa ndetse ahita ashyirwa hanze n’ingabo za Iran.

Ku ruhande rwa Amerika, iri ryari ikosa rya operation n’imiyoborere, si igikorwa cyo gutera. Ku ruhande rwa Iran, byahindutse amahirwe ya politiki yo kwereka Isi ko ishobora gusuzugura igisirikare cya Amerika nta rusasu na rumwe.

Ikimwaro cyahindutse igikoresho cya politiki

Amashusho y’abasirikare ba US Navy bari bapfukamye, harimo n’umugore agaragara ari kurira, yabaye ikimenyetso cyakubise Amerika bikomeye mu cyubahiro cya gisirikare. Mu gihe ubuyobozi bwa Perezida Barack Obama bwahisemo inzira ya dipolomasi, bigatuma abo basirikare barekurwa mu masaha atarenze 15, iki kibazo cyabaye intwaro ikomeye mu mpaka za politiki z’imbere muri Amerika.

Donald Trump, wari umukandida ku mwanya wa Perezida icyo gihe, yifashishije iyi nkuru agaragaza ko Amerika yayoborwaga mu ntege nke, ashimangira ko Iran itari gutinyuka gufata abasirikare ba Amerika iyo we aza kuba ari ku butegetsi. Aho ni ho ikibazo gitangira guhinduka: byari kugenda bite iyo icyemezo cyari gufatwa kitari dipolomasi, ahubwo kikaba kwihorera?

Ibyago byo kwihorera kwa Trump

Abasesenguzi mu by’umutekano n’imibanire mpuzamahanga bagaragaza ko igitero cyo kwihorera kuri Iran, gishingiye ku byabaye mu 2016, cyari kuba ikosa rikomeye ry’amateka.

Icya mbere, cyari gutuma habaho intambara yeruye hagati ya Amerika na Iran. Iran si igihugu gito cyaterwa kigasenywa byihuse. Gifite missiles zishobora kugera ku birindiro bya Amerika n’inshuti zayo mu karere, ndetse gifite imiyoboro y’imitwe yitwaje intwaro muri Lebanon, Iraq na Syria. Intambara imwe yari guhita ihinduka intambara yo mu karere kose.

Icya kabiri, isi yari guhura n’ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubukungu. Iran igenzura igice kinini cya Strait of Hormuz, inzira inyuramo hafi kimwe cya gatanu cy’amavuta acuruzwa ku Isi. Kuyifunga cyangwa kuyigabamo ibitero byari gutuma ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka bikabije, bigahungabanya ubukungu bw’ibihugu bikennye n’ibikize.

Icya gatatu, kwihorera byari gusenya amategeko mpuzamahanga, kuko igitero kitari gishingiye ku kwirwanaho ako kanya. Ibi byari gutuma Amerika itakaza icyizere n’ubuyobozi bwayo ku Isi, ikanaha n’ibindi bihugu urwitwazo rwo gukoresha imbaraga aho gukoresha dipolomasi.

Icya kane, igitero kuri Iran cyari kuba ifumbire y’iterabwoba, gituma amatsinda yitwaje intwaro abona impamvu nshya yo kugaba ibitero ku nyungu za Amerika n’inshuti zayo hirya no hino ku Isi.

Isomo rikomeye

Ibyabaye mu 2016 bigaragaza ko ikosa rito rya operation iyo rihujwe n’imyanzuro ya politiki ishingiye ku marangamutima, rishobora kuvamo intambara ishobora guhindura Isi. Dipolomasi y’icyo gihe yarinze isi igisasu; kwihorera, iyo gukorwa kwari kuyijyana mu mwijima utazwi aho ugarukira.

IMPUGUKIRWA: iyi nkuru mu kuyitunganya twakoresheje isura n’ubushobozi bya Iran mbere y’uko iba mu kibazo k’intambara na leta ya Israel.  Ubukaka n’ubushongore twayihaye muri iyi nkuru, byari ibya mbere yo gushegeshwa n’ibitero bya Israel. Gusa ntibivuze ko itagifite ubwo bukaka kuko ari igihugu kihagazeho, ahubwo ni uko yashigeshwe n’intambara.