Iyo Bavuze ko Igihugu Gifite Umwenda, Uwo Mwenda Uba Urihe Kandi Uba Uberewemo Nde, Ni Nde Ushobora Kwishyuza Igihugu Cyanze Kwishyura Umwenda?

Mu myaka ishize, buri gihe iyo hasohotse raporo ivuga ku bukungu bw’u Rwanda cyangwa ibindi bihugu byo ku Isi, usanga hari imibare ivuga ku ngano y’imyenda ibihugu bifite. Kenshi numvise abantu bibaza bati: “Ese igihugu kiba gifitiye nde ayo mafaranga yose?”, abandi bakibaza bati: “Niba igihugu gifite amadeni ya miliyari nyinshi z’amadolari, kizayishyura gute?”, hakabaho n’abibaza niba igihugu kiramutse cyanze kwishyura uwo mwenda hari umuntu wagifunga cyangwa wagitegeka kuwishyura ku ngufu.

Ibi bibazo byose bifite ibisubizo bishobora gutungura benshi. Mu bushakashatsi no mu biganiro nagiranye n’impuguke zitandukanye mu bukungu, nasanze imyenda y’ibihugu ari imwe mu ngingo zifite uburemere bukomeye kurusha uko abaturage benshi babitekereza. Nyamara kandi, kuba igihugu gifite umwenda munini si ko buri gihe biba bisobanuye ko kiri mu nzira yo guhomba.

Kugira ngo twumve neza iki kibazo, ni ngombwa kubanza gusobanukirwa abo ibihugu biba bibereyemo amafaranga n’impamvu ayo madeni aba yarafashwe.

Iyo bavuga ko igihugu gifite umwenda, kiba kiwubereyemo nde?

Iyo umuntu ku giti cye afashe umwenda muri banki, biroroshye kumenya uwo awubereyemo. Ariko ku gihugu, ibintu biba ari binini kandi bigoye kurushaho.

Mu by’ukuri, igihugu gishobora kuba gifitiye umwenda abaturage bacyo ubwabo, amabanki yo mu gihugu, ibigo by’ubwiteganyirize, ibigo by’ubwishingizi cyangwa abashoramari bo mu gihugu. Ibi ni byo byitwa amadeni yo mu gihugu imbere (Domestic Debt).

Urugero, iyo Leta isohoye impapuro mpeshamwenda zigurwa n’abaturage cyangwa ibigo bitandukanye, aba ari amafaranga igihugu kiba cyagurijwe n’abo bantu. Mu yandi magambo, bamwe mu baturage baba bagurije Leta yabo amafaranga, ikazayabasubiza nyuma y’igihe runaka hiyongereyeho inyungu.

Ariko hari n’amadeni yo hanze y’igihugu. Aha igihugu kiba cyagurijwe n’ibigo mpuzamahanga, ibihugu by’amahanga cyangwa abashoramari mpuzamahanga (External Debts).

Mu baguriza ibihugu harimo ibigo bikomeye nka International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank ndetse na African Development Bank. Hari kandi ibihugu bikomeye nk’u Bushinwa, Ubuyapani, Amerika cyangwa ibihugu byo ku mugabane w’u Burayi bishobora kuguriza ibindi bihugu amafaranga yo guteza imbere ibikorwa remezo cyangwa gushyigikira gahunda z’iterambere.

Ni yo mpamvu ushobora kumva bavuga ko igihugu runaka gifitiye umwenda u Bushinwa cyangwa Banki y’Isi. Uwo mwenda uba ari amafaranga cyahawe kugira ngo gishyire mu bikorwa imishinga runaka cyangwa gikemure ikibazo cy’amikoro.

Kuki ibihugu bikomeza gufata amadeni kandi bifite imisoro bisoresha abaturage babyo?

Iki ni kimwe mu bibazo bikunze kugaruka cyane.

Mu buryo bworoshye, amafaranga igihugu cyinjiza ava mu misoro akenshi ntahagije kugira ngo ahite yubaka ibikorwa byose gikenera mu gihe kimwe.

Kubaka umuhanda munini, ikibuga cy’indege, urugomero rw’amashanyarazi, ibitaro bikomeye cyangwa ibikorwa byo kugeza amazi n’amashanyarazi ku baturage bisaba amafaranga menshi cyane. Iyo Leta itegereje ko ayo mafaranga yose ava mu misoro gusa, hari imishinga ishobora gutinda imyaka myinshi itaragerwaho.

Ni yo mpamvu ibihugu byinshi bihitamo gufata umwenda bikabona amafaranga ako kanya, bikubaka ibikorwa remezo byitezweho kuzafasha ubukungu gukura mu myaka iri imbere.

Abahanga mu bukungu bakunda kugereranya ibi n’umuhinzi ufata inguzanyo kugira ngo agure imbuto n’ifumbire. Nubwo aba afashe umwenda, aba afite icyizere ko umusaruro azasarura uzamufasha kwishyura iyo nguzanyo kandi akanasigarana inyungu.

Iyo umwenda ukoreshejwe neza, ushobora kuba igikoresho gikomeye cy’iterambere. Ariko iyo ukoreshejwe nabi cyangwa amafaranga yagurijwe igihugu ntabyare umusaruro uhagije, ushobora guhinduka umutwaro uremereye ku bukungu.

Aho amafaranga yo kwishyura amadeni ava

Hari abantu batekereza ko ibihugu bifata amafaranga mu kirere bikishyura amadeni yabyo. Nyamara uburyo bwo kwishyura bushingira ahanini ku mikoro igihugu kiba gifite.

Amafaranga menshi yishyura amadeni ava mu misoro abaturage n’ibigo byishyura. Iyo ubukungu bukura, ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi bikiyongera, abaturage bagahabwa akazi kandi amasosiyete akabona inyungu, amafaranga y’imisoro yiyongera. Ayo mafaranga ni yo Leta ikoresha mu bikorwa bitandukanye harimo no kwishyura imyenda.

Hari kandi igihe igihugu cyinjiza amafaranga ava mu bikorwa remezo cyangwa mu mishinga yashowemo imari. Urugero, ikibuga cy’indege gishobora kwinjiza amafaranga ava ku ngendo z’indege n’izindi serivisi, urugomero rukabyara amashanyarazi yinjiza amafaranga, cyangwa umuhanda wishyurwa ukinjiza amafaranga yifashishwa mu gusubiza inguzanyo.

Ariko hari ikindi kintu gitungura benshi. Ibihugu byinshi ku Isi ntibyishyura imyenda yabyo yose icyarimwe. Ahubwo rimwe na rimwe bifata indi nguzanyo nshya kugira ngo bishyure igice cy’umwenda ushaje.

Ku bantu bamwe ibi bishobora kumvikana nk’akaga, ariko ni uburyo busanzwe bukoreshwa mu micungire y’imari ya Leta. Ikibazo kiba atari ugufata undi mwenda, ahubwo kiba ari ukureba niba igihugu gifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza kuwishyura no gukomeza gukura mu bukungu.

Iyo igihugu cyananiwe kwishyura biba bigenda bite?

Bitandukanye n’umuntu ku giti cye ushobora gufatirwa imitungo cyangwa ugashyikirizwa inkiko igihe wananiwe kwishyura ideni wahawe, igihugu cyo rero gifite ubusugire bwacyo. Nta rwego mpuzamahanga rushobora kujya gufunga igihugu cyangwa kugifatira abaturage kubera ko cyanze kwishyura umwenda.

Ariko ibyo ntibivuze ko nta ngaruka kibona.

Iyo igihugu cyanze kwishyura cyangwa kikagaragara nk’ikidashoboye kubahiriza amasezerano y’imyenda cyagiranye n’abakigurije, icyizere cy’abashoramari kiragabanuka cyane.

Abashaka kuguriza icyo gihugu batangira kukibona nk’ahantu hashobora guteza igihombo. Ibyo bituma kugurizwa biba bigoye cyane cyangwa se abaguriza bagasaba inyungu zihanitse cyane.

Mu gihe nk’icyo, amafaranga y’amahanga (amadovize) ashobora gutangira kuva muri icyo gihugu, ifaranga ryacyo rigatakaza agaciro, ibiciro bikazamuka ndetse n’ubukungu bugatangira guhungabana.

Ni yo mpamvu ibihugu byinshi bikora ibishoboka byose kugira ngo byirinde kugera aho binanirwa kwishyura imyenda yabyo.

Isomo rikomeye ryavuye muri Argentina

Mu nkuru z’amateka y’ubukungu ku Isi, igihugu cya Argentina gikunze kuvugwa nk’urugero rw’ingaruka zo kunanirwa kwishyura imyenda.

Mu mwaka wa 2001, icyo gihugu cyari gifite umwenda munini cyane utari ukiri kugishobokera kuwishyura. Ubukungu bwacyo bwari bumaze igihe bujegajega, amafaranga yinjira akaba atari ahagije ngo yuzuze inshingano cyari gifite.

Igihe cyatangazaga ko kidashoboye gukomeza kwishyura imyenda yacyo, ibintu byarahindutse. Abashoramari benshi bahise bakuramo amafaranga yabo, amabanki ahura n’ibibazo bikomeye, abaturage benshi batakaza akazi ndetse igihugu cyinjira mu bihe bikomeye by’ubukungu.

Nubwo nyuma cyaje kongera kwisuganya, imyaka yakurikiyeho yagaragaje uburyo kubura icyizere cy’abakuguriza bishobora gukomeretsa ubukungu bw’igihugu igihe kirekire.

Uko ikibazo cy’imyenda cyahungabanyije Ubugiriki (Greece)

Urundi rugero rwigishwa henshi ni urwa Greece

Mu myaka ya 2010, iki gihugu cyahuye n’ikibazo gikomeye cy’imyenda nyuma y’igihe kinini amafaranga cyakoreshaga yararutaga ayo cyinjizaga. Igihe ikibazo cyageraga ku rwego rukomeye, byasabye ko gifashwa n’ibigo mpuzamahanga n’ibihugu byo mu Burayi kugira ngo kitagwa burundu.

Abaturage bahuye n’ingamba zikomeye zirimo kugabanya amafaranga Leta yakoreshaga, kugabanya imwe mu mishahara no kongera imisoro. Ibi byateje imyigaragambyo n’uburakari mu baturage, ariko byerekana uburyo ikibazo cy’imyenda gishobora kugera ku buzima bwa buri munsi bw’abaturage.

Sri Lanka yo ni isomo rya vuba

Mu mwaka wa 2022, Sri Lanka na yo yabaye urugero rugaragaza uko ikibazo cy’imyenda gishobora kugera kure.

Kubura amadovize yo kwishyura imyenda no gutumiza ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi byatumye igihugu kibura lisansi, imiti n’ibindi bikenerwa by’ibanze. Imirongo miremire ku masitasiyo ya lisansi yabaye ishusho y’ikibazo igihugu cyari kirimo.

Ibyo byagaragaje ko ikibazo cy’imyenda atari imibare gusa yandikwa muri raporo z’ubukungu, ahubwo gishobora kugira ingaruka ku mibereho ya buri munsi y’abaturage.

Ikintu cy’ingenzi kurusha umwenda ubwawo

Mu gihe maze nkurikirana ibijyanye n’ubukungu n’ishoramari, nasanze abantu benshi bibanda ku mubare w’umwenda igihugu gifite, ariko bakirengagiza ikibazo cy’ingenzi kurushaho.

Abahanga mu bukungu ntibabaza gusa bati: “Igihugu gifite umwenda ungana iki?” Ahubwo barabaza bati: “Ese gifite ubushobozi bwo kuwishyura?”

Ni yo mpamvu igihugu nk’u Buyapani gifite umwenda munini cyane ugereranyije n’ubukungu bwacyo (Kugeza ubu ubuyapani ni cyo gihugu cya mbere ku isi gifite imyenda myinshi), ariko ntigifatwe nk’igitegerejwe guhomba. Impamvu ni uko gifite ubukungu bukomeye, icyizere cy’abashoramari n’ubushobozi bwo gukomeza kubona amafaranga akenewe.

Ku rundi ruhande, igihugu gishobora kuba gifite umwenda muto kurushaho ariko kikagira ibibazo bikomeye mu gihe ubukungu bwacyo budakura cyangwa mu gihe kidafite uburyo bwo kubona amafaranga yo kuwishyura.

Aha ni ho havukira igipimo kizwi nka Debt-to-GDP Ratio, gikoreshwa mu kureba isano iri hagati y’umwenda igihugu gifite n’ingano y’ubukungu bwacyo.

Mu gusoza, nabwira abasomyi ko umwenda atari mubi ku bihugu. Nk’uko umuntu ashobora gufata inguzanyo akubaka inzu cyangwa agatangiza ubucuruzi bukamuteza imbere, ni ko n’igihugu gishobora gukoresha amadeni mu kwihutisha iterambere ryacyo.

Ikibazo nyakuri si ugufata umwenda. Ikibazo ni icyo uwo mwenda wakoze, icyo watanze ku bukungu, n’ubushobozi igihugu gifite bwo kuwucunga no kuwishyura. Iyo ayo mahame yubahirijwe, umwenda uba igikoresho cy’iterambere. Iyo atubahirijwe, ushobora guhinduka umutwaro ushobora no guhungabanya ejo hazaza h’igihugu cyose.

Hari kandi n’utuntu duke ntasoza ntababwiyeho, nk’ubu sinakwibagirwa kubabwira ko igihugu k’igihangange nka Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika gifitiye u Bushinwa umwenda wa 7 Trillion dollar (Tiriyoni 7 z’amadorari). U Bushinwa nabwo burya bugira imyenda myinshi ariko hari itandukaniro rikomeye hagati ya USA na China; nk’ubu USA muri rusange ifite umwenda wa leta ungana na Trillion 36 z’amadorari, mu gihe u Bushinwa bufite umwenda wa leta ungana na Trillion 13 z’amadorari. Akandi kantu, Amerika yo iyo myenda yose iyifitiye abashoramari batandukanye n’ibindi bihugu, mu gihe leta y’u Bushinwa yo iyo myenda iyifitiye abaturage bayo, n’amabanki y’imbere mu gihugu binyuze mu mpapuro mpeshamwenda (Bonds). Dukurikire kuri WhatsApp ujye ubona amakuru tubagezaho ku gihe https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vad5UfC89inh67apBK2j